Rasmussen has a poll out today showing Rick Perry jumping out to a 29%-18% lead over Mitt Romney. The poll is the first taken by any of the major pollsters since Perry announced his candidacy on Saturday afternoon. If this poll can be verified by additional polling, then the conventional narrative of the GOP race has just been turned completely on its head.
Mitt Romney has been the leading GOP candidate from the beginning. At various times, a number of people have taken turns as the consensus alternative to Mitt Romney in the GOP field. Whether it’s been Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Haley Barbour, Jon Huntsman, Mitch Daniels, Rudy Giuliani, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Chris Christie or Paul Ryan; pundits have – at one time or another – annointed each of them as the obvious “other candidate” who will be the last person standing in the way of Mitt Romney gaining the nomination.
But that all pre-supposed that Mitt Romney would be the candidate from whom dissatisfied Republicans would be looking for an alternative. What if that candidate turns out to be Rick Perry instead? That changes the calculus considerably.
So long as Mitt Romney was the undisputed frontrunner, there was plenty of room to run as a more socially conservative or more TEA Party-friendly alternative. But if Perry emerges from the immediate rush of his announcement as the undisputed frontrunner, then there is likely to be little appetite for another candidate in that mold. The only remaining potential “gap” then is someone who can credibly replace Romney as the “less threatening” alternative to Perry.
Romney would certainly fit the bill as an “anti-Perry,” but after years – not weeks or months, but years – of campaigning he has yet to crack 25% support with Republican voters even before Perry entered the race. His polling against Obama is relatively strong, so there does seem to be at least a decent appetite for a “non-threatening” candidate. However, Romney has yet to close the sale for Republicans as being that person, and it remains to be seen how Perry will poll as the public gets to know him. Is Romney’s polling against Obama merely an artifice of being the best known Republican candidate, or will Perry’s polling pull even with Romney and thereby diminish the “electability” rationale for his candidacy?
Which brings us to the speculation today that other candidates such as Paul Ryan and Chris Christie may still be considering or being willing to be drafted into the race. Both have previously denied any interest, but Ryan has reportedly been exploring a run behind the scenes.
Is there still room ideologically for another entrant? With two powerful fundraisers already in the race, is there enough money still waiting for someone else to make a run even feasible? Are there enough quality staffers left on the market to put together the kind of top-notch campaign that would be needed? Is there enough time left to put it all together?
If there’s an opening in the field, it’s highly doubtful that there’s room for more than one additional candidate. After all, it’s one thing to market yourself as the alternative to the frontrunner; but how do you expect to gain significant traction as the alternative to the alternative?
It’s also highly unrealistic to believe that other candidates can afford to wait much longer. Yes, the absolute deadline for filing isn’t until November 1st, and it’s theoretically possible to raise large amounts of grassroots money quickly; however, high quality staffers aren’t going to sit on the sidelines waiting that long. They needs jobs just like everyone else, and they’re already being courted by the current crop of candidates. Let’s also not forget that grassroots money is no substitute for big money donors over the long haul, and both Perry and Romney are already working every day to lock them up.
No doubt, there are Republican operatives working the phones and huddling in offices around the country trying to figure out if there’s a realistic path to both the nomination and victory in the general election for yet another candidate. But there’s also no doubt that today’s polling results have changed those conversations considerably.
Under Politics, Presidential Politics, US Politics
Tags: 2012 Election, Mitt Romney, Polling, Republicans, Rick Perry




